* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * KEVIN EP142009 09/01/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 27 25 23 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 28 27 25 23 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 29 28 27 25 23 20 18 16 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 2 1 6 11 12 11 12 10 11 7 12 12 N/A SHEAR DIR 253 196 152 167 181 142 135 97 117 129 171 211 N/A SST (C) 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.5 26.5 26.3 26.1 25.7 25.2 24.8 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 129 127 126 125 125 124 124 123 121 118 112 108 N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.6 -51.6 -51.5 -51.7 -51.9 -51.4 -51.5 -51.3 -51.5 -51.6 -52.0 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 4 4 3 N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 48 44 45 43 41 40 40 41 41 45 45 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 6 6 6 4 4 4 4 3 2 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 35 38 33 22 27 12 14 17 40 39 40 11 N/A 200 MB DIV -14 -21 -6 -18 -11 -10 7 14 -6 -6 4 10 N/A LAND (KM) 1237 1203 1169 1150 1130 1116 1093 1097 1106 1142 1141 1114 N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.1 18.3 18.4 18.5 18.7 18.8 19.1 19.5 19.9 20.4 21.0 N/A LONG(DEG W) 121.6 121.4 121.2 121.1 120.9 120.9 120.7 121.0 121.4 122.2 122.8 123.1 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 2 3 4 3 3 N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 5 3 4 5 4 4 2 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 5 CX,CY: 1/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 16. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -9. -10. -11. -10. -10. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -5. -7. -11. -14. -16. -16. -18. -19. -21. -20. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142009 KEVIN 09/01/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.4 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.5 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 17.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.6 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142009 KEVIN 09/01/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY