* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942009 09/01/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 34 35 38 47 54 64 69 72 72 72 70 V (KT) LAND 30 31 34 35 38 47 54 64 69 72 61 64 50 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 33 35 40 46 55 66 76 69 72 58 SHEAR (KT) 8 2 4 3 0 3 6 1 6 5 14 16 20 SHEAR DIR 255 291 260 258 240 170 25 107 331 238 296 262 282 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 148 149 149 149 148 148 148 148 150 150 149 147 146 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 140 139 138 137 135 135 136 138 138 138 137 135 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -53.2 -53.4 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 11 700-500 MB RH 54 54 54 50 51 52 50 51 51 51 49 51 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 12 10 10 10 8 8 7 6 4 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 13 14 19 9 11 19 4 23 14 25 5 12 4 200 MB DIV 49 49 32 25 34 24 4 4 -26 -2 0 2 -7 LAND (KM) 782 762 751 744 686 576 468 361 226 87 -22 52 -22 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.7 16.9 17.1 17.3 17.6 17.8 17.9 17.9 18.1 18.3 18.5 18.6 LONG(DEG W) 56.6 57.3 58.0 58.7 59.3 60.3 61.3 62.3 63.6 64.9 66.3 67.8 69.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 6 5 5 6 6 6 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 76 75 75 74 77 78 67 70 74 60 77 64 86 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 26. 27. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 17. 16. 15. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 5. 9. 17. 24. 34. 39. 42. 42. 42. 40. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942009 INVEST 09/01/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 29.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 75.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.2 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942009 INVEST 09/01/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY