* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132009 09/01/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 130 128 124 119 113 103 90 79 66 58 50 43 40 V (KT) LAND 130 128 124 119 113 103 65 43 35 32 23 23 25 V (KT) LGE mod 130 125 118 112 104 90 59 41 34 36 35 29 28 SHEAR (KT) 4 5 7 12 13 7 19 18 33 31 38 30 30 SHEAR DIR 197 176 205 231 266 248 284 279 301 302 290 292 297 SST (C) 29.2 28.9 28.5 28.0 27.5 26.6 27.3 27.7 27.9 29.6 30.7 29.8 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 157 154 149 144 139 129 135 138 140 158 169 160 148 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -50.8 -50.5 -50.9 -51.1 -50.5 -51.2 -51.0 -51.9 -52.5 -53.6 -54.2 -55.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 7 5 6 3 6 3 6 2 7 4 700-500 MB RH 70 69 67 66 66 61 56 54 49 48 48 47 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 16 16 14 15 13 12 10 8 8 7 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 18 31 24 11 2 2 -14 -4 -8 0 38 58 76 200 MB DIV 32 30 21 -1 -2 42 0 -6 -17 -24 12 17 -6 LAND (KM) 260 176 136 101 46 48 -63 -31 -10 44 5 -30 -73 LAT (DEG N) 20.6 21.6 22.5 23.4 24.3 25.9 27.2 28.0 28.6 29.3 30.5 31.2 31.6 LONG(DEG W) 110.5 110.9 111.3 111.7 112.1 112.7 112.9 113.1 113.3 113.2 113.0 112.7 112.5 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 9 8 5 4 4 5 5 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 32 20 4 9 5 0 51 64 3 41 113 110 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 135 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -6. -10. -21. -32. -41. -48. -53. -54. -57. -58. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -4. -5. -9. -13. -20. -26. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -8. -11. -11. -13. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -6. -11. -17. -27. -40. -51. -64. -72. -80. -87. -90. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132009 JIMENA 09/01/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 18.6 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132009 JIMENA 09/01/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY