* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942009 09/01/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 55 59 64 69 74 76 75 72 68 63 60 V (KT) LAND 45 50 55 59 64 69 74 76 75 72 68 63 60 V (KT) LGE mod 45 51 56 60 64 70 74 78 80 81 78 72 67 SHEAR (KT) 3 6 4 4 4 8 3 12 13 23 22 29 18 SHEAR DIR 248 231 221 272 176 254 282 293 305 287 279 274 302 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.7 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 149 150 149 149 149 148 145 145 147 147 146 146 147 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 141 140 140 140 137 131 130 134 137 135 131 129 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -52.5 -52.7 -52.5 -52.8 -53.0 -53.3 -53.7 -54.1 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 11 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 53 52 51 51 53 47 46 45 48 47 50 49 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 10 11 11 10 9 8 6 5 4 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 15 17 18 13 14 8 12 6 12 -4 -15 -32 -37 200 MB DIV 49 36 27 50 50 26 42 -1 -8 -6 13 -1 -3 LAND (KM) 782 768 726 637 550 383 271 207 188 266 257 355 432 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.1 17.4 17.7 18.0 18.8 19.4 19.7 20.1 20.9 22.0 23.0 23.8 LONG(DEG W) 57.2 58.1 58.9 59.7 60.5 62.1 63.4 64.4 65.4 67.1 69.6 71.3 72.4 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 8 8 8 8 6 5 7 11 11 8 6 HEAT CONTENT 73 73 76 79 73 68 59 56 56 64 59 47 56 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 15. 16. 17. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 10. 11. 11. 10. 8. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 15. 19. 24. 29. 31. 30. 27. 23. 18. 15. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942009 INVEST 09/01/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.4 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 45.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 74.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 38% is 3.1 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 22% is 4.6 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942009 INVEST 09/01/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY