* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132009 09/01/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 109 103 98 93 84 75 63 52 46 41 37 35 V (KT) LAND 115 109 103 98 93 84 50 37 32 30 25 20 24 V (KT) LGE mod 115 107 101 95 89 78 47 35 31 32 30 30 27 SHEAR (KT) 1 4 10 13 9 20 17 28 36 31 39 28 25 SHEAR DIR 218 227 250 285 273 267 283 295 307 307 293 297 312 SST (C) 28.8 28.4 27.8 27.3 26.6 26.0 26.2 26.6 27.9 29.3 30.4 30.2 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 153 149 142 137 129 122 123 126 140 155 167 164 148 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.5 -50.9 -51.2 -51.0 -51.0 -51.0 -51.3 -51.7 -52.5 -53.1 -54.4 -55.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 6 6 4 5 3 4 3 5 4 7 700-500 MB RH 69 67 66 65 63 55 54 50 50 47 50 47 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 15 15 15 14 13 12 9 7 7 7 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 29 29 13 7 7 -6 -5 4 -11 31 25 56 49 200 MB DIV 36 24 0 4 32 14 9 -43 -29 -3 -6 0 1 LAND (KM) 186 152 115 51 48 13 -72 -43 -6 45 43 -3 -82 LAT (DEG N) 21.5 22.5 23.4 24.3 25.2 26.5 27.6 28.2 28.8 29.5 30.5 31.2 31.8 LONG(DEG W) 111.0 111.5 111.9 112.3 112.6 113.1 113.3 113.4 113.4 113.4 113.4 113.2 112.7 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 8 6 4 3 3 4 5 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 24 5 12 8 0 0 41 46 6 18 97 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 10 CX,CY: -4/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 135 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -7. -17. -27. -36. -41. -44. -45. -46. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -12. -17. -24. -28. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 6. 8. 8. 9. 9. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE -6. -8. -9. -9. -6. -4. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -10. -12. -13. -13. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -12. -17. -22. -31. -40. -52. -63. -69. -74. -78. -80. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132009 JIMENA 09/01/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.9 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 95.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.8 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132009 JIMENA 09/01/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY