* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * KEVIN EP142009 09/01/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 21 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 23 21 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 23 21 20 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 6 11 9 3 7 13 10 18 13 12 7 8 7 SHEAR DIR 200 193 198 229 125 138 103 119 122 148 129 179 253 SST (C) 26.5 26.5 26.4 26.4 26.3 26.3 26.3 26.4 26.5 26.5 26.4 26.4 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 125 124 123 122 121 122 123 125 126 126 126 126 123 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.8 -51.8 -51.9 -51.9 -51.4 -51.4 -51.3 -51.5 -51.7 -52.0 -51.9 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 41 40 37 37 33 33 33 34 39 42 44 43 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 16 13 7 -2 6 7 21 26 39 36 34 13 200 MB DIV -16 -16 -7 -9 -13 2 3 0 -5 -3 7 12 4 LAND (KM) 1235 1225 1215 1212 1209 1226 1290 1361 1441 1511 1581 1657 1694 LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.5 18.6 18.7 18.7 18.7 18.5 18.2 17.9 17.8 18.0 18.3 18.8 LONG(DEG W) 122.0 122.0 122.0 122.0 122.0 122.2 122.8 123.4 124.1 125.0 126.2 127.5 128.4 STM SPEED (KT) 3 1 1 0 0 2 3 4 4 5 6 6 4 HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 0 0 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 12. 15. 18. 20. 21. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 4. 3. 4. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -6. -10. -13. -14. -14. -15. -16. -15. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -7. -9. -13. -17. -20. -21. -21. -19. -19. -17. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142009 KEVIN 09/01/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.3 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.0 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 1.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.2 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142009 KEVIN 09/01/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY