* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132009 09/02/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 92 87 83 80 75 68 59 53 47 42 41 41 V (KT) LAND 100 92 87 79 76 48 37 34 29 22 17 16 17 V (KT) LGE mod 100 90 84 76 72 47 36 36 35 33 32 33 36 SHEAR (KT) 7 12 12 9 9 23 21 36 32 34 27 28 19 SHEAR DIR 208 248 281 292 271 296 277 303 319 300 285 287 301 SST (C) 28.7 28.3 27.9 27.6 27.3 27.7 28.8 29.1 29.7 30.3 30.7 30.6 30.6 POT. INT. (KT) 152 148 143 139 136 139 150 151 157 165 168 167 166 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -51.0 -51.0 -50.7 -50.2 -51.1 -51.1 -51.7 -51.9 -52.9 -53.8 -54.5 -55.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 5 6 6 4 6 3 7 3 7 3 7 700-500 MB RH 68 68 68 65 63 60 57 51 50 50 51 49 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 16 17 16 15 13 11 9 8 8 7 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 23 9 2 1 -3 -14 -13 -15 0 9 29 45 48 200 MB DIV 20 7 6 35 46 -7 -11 -21 -29 -5 -14 -14 3 LAND (KM) 113 71 9 10 10 -50 -4 12 26 51 16 12 2 LAT (DEG N) 22.6 23.6 24.6 25.4 26.2 27.3 28.3 28.7 28.8 29.2 30.3 30.7 30.8 LONG(DEG W) 111.1 111.5 111.9 112.2 112.5 112.8 113.0 113.1 113.0 113.0 113.1 113.1 113.0 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 10 8 7 5 4 1 1 4 3 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 9 17 8 0 0 57 0 17 32 69 109 68 48 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 11 CX,CY: -2/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 495 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -7. -11. -16. -19. -21. -23. -24. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -5. -6. -11. -15. -20. -26. -29. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -8. -12. -14. -13. -11. -8. -5. -3. -3. -2. 0. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -11. -12. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -13. -17. -20. -25. -32. -41. -47. -53. -58. -59. -59. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132009 JIMENA 09/02/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -30.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.6 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 89.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.8 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132009 JIMENA 09/02/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY