* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132009 09/02/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 87 80 74 67 60 49 39 32 27 20 21 20 V (KT) LAND 95 87 80 74 67 43 33 29 28 27 27 31 30 V (KT) LGE mod 95 87 81 76 71 44 34 30 28 27 27 29 28 SHEAR (KT) 6 10 13 8 18 22 30 33 29 35 25 18 14 SHEAR DIR 252 287 291 283 276 285 299 307 301 287 296 314 320 SST (C) 28.0 27.5 26.8 26.5 26.5 26.9 26.0 25.3 26.0 25.6 26.4 27.1 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 144 139 131 127 127 130 119 112 119 116 124 130 141 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.1 -50.9 -50.4 -50.8 -51.4 -51.8 -52.1 -52.5 -53.6 -54.5 -55.0 -55.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 5 6 6 4 6 4 6 3 5 3 5 4 700-500 MB RH 66 66 64 62 60 58 52 51 48 51 49 48 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 14 14 13 12 11 7 7 6 7 6 7 5 850 MB ENV VOR 7 -4 -4 -8 -17 -24 -6 -14 5 1 33 23 38 200 MB DIV 8 6 22 23 3 -15 -21 -13 -4 -2 -10 0 -25 LAND (KM) 101 46 40 50 3 -68 -59 -39 -39 -30 -10 5 18 LAT (DEG N) 23.4 24.3 25.2 25.9 26.5 27.4 27.9 28.1 28.4 28.8 29.6 29.8 29.6 LONG(DEG W) 111.7 112.1 112.5 112.7 112.9 113.1 113.4 113.6 113.6 113.9 114.3 114.3 113.9 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 8 7 6 4 2 2 2 3 3 1 2 HEAT CONTENT 14 11 0 0 0 44 37 0 62 0 0 0 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 11 CX,CY: -3/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 531 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -4. -9. -16. -24. -30. -35. -38. -40. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -12. -16. -21. -26. -28. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -5. -8. -9. -9. -8. -6. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 2. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -10. -11. -12. -11. -14. -12. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -3. -1. 0. 2. 4. 5. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -15. -21. -28. -35. -46. -56. -63. -68. -75. -74. -75. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132009 JIMENA 09/02/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.2 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.6 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 67.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132009 JIMENA 09/02/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY