* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * ERIKA AL062009 09/02/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 41 43 47 54 58 63 63 66 66 67 69 V (KT) LAND 40 40 41 43 47 54 58 63 63 66 66 67 69 V (KT) LGE mod 40 38 38 39 41 47 54 60 62 62 60 58 57 SHEAR (KT) 6 0 5 7 7 6 14 13 23 19 19 17 18 SHEAR DIR 245 93 304 336 28 307 317 283 309 271 285 280 324 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 152 152 151 151 149 149 146 144 144 146 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 143 143 143 141 140 137 137 133 131 130 131 132 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.3 -52.4 -52.3 -52.7 -52.6 -53.3 -53.1 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 12 11 11 12 11 12 11 11 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 53 51 50 48 46 48 47 46 48 51 53 56 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 13 11 11 10 10 10 8 8 9 8 10 850 MB ENV VOR 0 4 11 0 -7 8 -1 18 13 12 -2 -18 -10 200 MB DIV 46 40 41 42 14 23 -11 8 11 15 2 -10 -3 LAND (KM) 620 566 489 407 326 164 30 66 124 122 202 306 386 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.5 16.7 17.0 17.3 17.9 18.5 19.1 19.8 20.7 21.6 22.6 23.7 LONG(DEG W) 60.0 60.7 61.4 62.1 62.8 64.2 65.5 66.8 68.1 69.4 70.7 72.0 73.1 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 78 54 36 80 77 67 2 66 64 55 58 49 64 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 637 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 14. 17. 19. 20. 21. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 9. 8. 6. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -4. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 7. 14. 18. 23. 23. 26. 26. 27. 29. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062009 ERIKA 09/02/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 65.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062009 ERIKA 09/02/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY