* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * ERIKA AL062009 09/02/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 32 33 36 40 44 47 48 50 51 52 55 V (KT) LAND 35 33 32 33 36 40 41 44 46 47 49 50 52 V (KT) LGE mod 35 32 31 31 32 35 40 42 43 42 41 40 39 SHEAR (KT) 4 9 8 4 3 15 16 22 22 24 20 22 15 SHEAR DIR 219 251 285 351 347 297 309 293 296 282 270 288 289 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.7 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 152 150 150 151 149 148 145 144 144 146 150 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 142 142 140 140 140 138 137 133 131 129 130 133 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.2 -52.5 -52.1 -52.6 -52.5 -52.7 -53.0 -53.3 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 10 10 700-500 MB RH 52 51 47 46 49 48 46 47 51 50 56 56 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 11 11 11 9 10 8 8 7 6 6 7 850 MB ENV VOR 10 5 -2 -2 19 0 11 13 28 7 8 -28 -19 200 MB DIV 33 24 26 36 46 -3 16 6 27 12 0 2 17 LAND (KM) 512 440 368 291 215 53 11 81 45 122 189 259 338 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.6 16.8 17.1 17.4 18.0 18.6 19.3 20.1 20.9 21.6 22.6 23.8 LONG(DEG W) 61.3 62.0 62.6 63.3 63.9 65.3 66.6 68.1 69.8 71.3 72.5 73.5 74.3 STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 7 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 22 71 77 80 78 69 19 60 60 60 54 56 72 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 711 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 15. 18. 21. 23. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -2. 1. 5. 9. 12. 13. 15. 16. 17. 20. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062009 ERIKA 09/02/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 29.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.8 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 65.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062009 ERIKA 09/02/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY