* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132009 09/02/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 78 75 71 67 52 37 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 80 63 52 43 37 31 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 80 65 53 44 38 31 29 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 13 11 21 27 28 23 29 28 31 21 14 15 12 SHEAR DIR 271 266 279 290 292 299 301 299 276 270 277 283 320 SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.1 26.0 23.7 20.8 20.0 20.2 20.3 20.6 20.5 20.1 POT. INT. (KT) 141 139 138 132 120 96 66 57 59 60 64 63 59 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.3 -50.8 -51.5 -51.6 -51.9 -51.9 -52.0 -53.0 -53.5 -54.0 -54.2 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 5 4 5 3 3 2 3 2 4 2 2 700-500 MB RH 66 62 60 62 58 53 49 48 47 43 34 31 26 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 12 11 11 7 7 7 7 5 6 5 6 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -9 -10 -16 -28 -5 -19 -20 -12 8 -2 15 22 200 MB DIV 21 19 6 0 -2 -20 -13 0 14 -17 -4 -9 0 LAND (KM) 1 -22 -56 -59 -59 -9 16 9 50 89 167 218 266 LAT (DEG N) 25.9 26.6 27.2 27.6 27.9 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.8 28.1 28.6 LONG(DEG W) 112.2 112.5 112.8 113.1 113.4 113.9 114.7 115.1 115.5 115.9 116.7 117.2 118.1 STM SPEED (KT) 10 7 6 4 3 3 3 2 2 3 3 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 0 26 55 54 37 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 12 CX,CY: -1/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 521 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. -1. -7. -18. -30. -41. -47. -51. -55. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -10. -14. -18. -22. -24. -24. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -7. -7. -7. -10. -9. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -8. -13. -28. -43. -59. -72. -82. -86. -91. -95. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132009 JIMENA 09/02/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.1 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 54.1 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 63.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 34.4 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132009 JIMENA 09/02/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY