* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * ERIKA AL062009 09/03/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 37 38 42 47 48 49 51 54 57 61 V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 37 38 42 42 36 32 36 39 43 46 V (KT) LGE mod 35 34 34 34 35 38 40 33 30 33 34 36 40 SHEAR (KT) 9 6 10 12 16 17 20 23 20 14 12 7 3 SHEAR DIR 258 290 295 288 289 294 275 296 280 274 259 1 316 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 153 151 151 149 147 146 144 145 146 149 154 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 145 145 143 143 140 136 133 132 132 133 134 136 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.2 -52.6 -52.7 -53.1 -53.1 -53.7 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 12 13 12 12 11 12 11 11 9 10 700-500 MB RH 50 49 47 50 45 46 48 53 52 55 57 61 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 12 9 9 9 8 8 6 6 6 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 4 -7 -8 16 8 11 25 20 27 15 11 -9 -11 200 MB DIV 23 23 29 48 13 12 18 10 23 13 12 2 -3 LAND (KM) 468 382 295 203 118 29 -6 -10 -11 56 114 142 204 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.3 16.5 16.8 17.1 17.7 18.5 19.1 19.7 20.4 21.4 22.3 23.4 LONG(DEG W) 62.0 62.8 63.6 64.5 65.3 67.1 68.4 69.7 71.0 72.5 74.1 75.5 76.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 9 9 9 8 7 7 7 8 9 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 76 78 84 81 67 65 58 0 0 47 62 60 66 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 639 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 15. 18. 21. 23. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 13. 14. 16. 19. 22. 26. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062009 ERIKA 09/03/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 39.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.7 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 77.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062009 ERIKA 09/03/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY