* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132009 09/03/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 59 54 51 47 34 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 54 47 41 36 31 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 54 46 40 36 37 29 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 10 17 26 27 24 32 30 38 33 25 15 17 14 SHEAR DIR 263 269 293 294 296 298 304 294 280 294 291 318 328 SST (C) 28.3 28.6 29.0 27.9 25.8 22.5 21.4 20.2 20.1 20.2 20.4 20.3 20.1 POT. INT. (KT) 147 149 152 141 118 83 71 59 58 59 61 60 58 200 MB T (C) -50.2 -50.9 -51.2 -51.3 -51.5 -51.6 -51.8 -52.6 -53.2 -54.0 -54.3 -54.6 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 4 4 5 5 2 4 1 4 2 4 1 4 700-500 MB RH 65 62 64 60 56 50 49 48 45 41 34 34 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 12 11 10 9 6 5 6 5 5 4 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -8 -7 -23 -12 -10 -8 -19 -6 10 12 26 36 200 MB DIV 39 2 -13 2 -5 -18 -26 4 -18 -25 -24 -14 -16 LAND (KM) -46 -24 -2 -30 -48 19 30 12 59 98 137 172 191 LAT (DEG N) 26.7 27.3 27.8 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.2 28.6 LONG(DEG W) 112.3 112.5 112.6 113.1 113.5 114.2 114.5 114.9 115.6 116.0 116.4 116.7 117.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 4 4 4 2 1 3 2 2 2 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 36 40 20 66 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 9 CX,CY: 0/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. -1. -9. -18. -26. -32. -36. -40. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -2. -3. -3. -6. -9. -15. -22. -27. -29. -30. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE -6. -9. -11. -12. -11. -10. -9. -7. -6. -6. -4. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -13. -13. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -11. -14. -18. -31. -43. -57. -70. -79. -85. -87. -88. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132009 JIMENA 09/03/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -25.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.9 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.3 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 68.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 32.4 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132009 JIMENA 09/03/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY