* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * ERIKA AL062009 09/03/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 40 42 47 48 51 53 54 51 52 50 V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 40 42 42 39 38 44 44 41 42 40 V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 37 39 40 36 37 36 39 38 37 36 35 SHEAR (KT) 8 6 14 18 19 14 24 21 28 23 27 18 22 SHEAR DIR 253 297 289 285 294 288 284 293 279 257 267 286 308 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 153 151 151 149 145 144 144 144 145 148 151 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 145 144 143 142 138 133 132 131 129 129 131 132 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.8 -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 -52.2 -52.1 -52.4 -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 -53.5 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 13 12 12 12 12 11 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 48 48 49 44 47 48 50 52 52 59 57 61 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 12 9 7 8 9 6 7 8 8 7 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -5 14 2 3 15 10 26 -4 -10 -29 -19 -42 200 MB DIV 24 40 35 -14 1 39 20 30 25 5 33 -8 -9 LAND (KM) 393 308 224 126 34 10 -8 -12 111 220 274 313 402 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.7 16.8 17.3 17.7 18.5 18.8 19.6 20.8 21.8 22.5 23.4 24.5 LONG(DEG W) 62.5 63.4 64.2 65.0 65.8 67.3 68.8 70.0 71.1 72.0 73.1 74.0 74.6 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 9 9 8 7 8 7 6 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 75 82 83 70 68 53 25 12 61 29 51 70 71 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 15. 18. 21. 23. 24. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 2. 0. -2. -4. -7. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -2. -4. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 7. 12. 13. 16. 18. 19. 16. 17. 15. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062009 ERIKA 09/03/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 64.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.9 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 75.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062009 ERIKA 09/03/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY