* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132009 09/03/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 48 46 45 41 34 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 42 38 35 32 30 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 43 39 35 32 35 28 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 17 21 22 19 18 31 31 33 27 19 13 12 17 SHEAR DIR 276 288 290 305 294 302 300 292 278 283 270 272 254 SST (C) 29.3 29.1 28.9 27.3 25.1 22.3 21.1 20.4 20.2 20.3 20.6 20.5 20.6 POT. INT. (KT) 156 153 150 134 111 81 68 61 58 60 63 62 63 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -51.3 -51.3 -51.4 -51.7 -51.9 -52.2 -52.7 -53.4 -54.1 -54.0 -54.1 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 5 5 3 3 2 3 2 4 3 4 2 700-500 MB RH 61 62 59 55 51 49 46 45 40 37 34 32 29 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 8 10 9 6 7 5 6 5 5 4 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -10 -23 -16 -7 -21 -21 -22 6 0 17 16 24 200 MB DIV 6 -4 6 0 -23 -17 -9 -3 -22 1 -26 -2 -1 LAND (KM) 3 1 0 -36 -39 12 7 3 31 53 99 110 157 LAT (DEG N) 27.5 27.8 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.4 27.6 27.8 LONG(DEG W) 112.3 112.6 112.8 113.2 113.6 114.2 114.6 114.9 115.3 115.5 115.9 116.1 116.6 STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 3 4 3 2 2 1 1 2 1 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 15 23 14 56 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. -2. -9. -16. -20. -23. -25. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. -4. -10. -16. -21. -22. -23. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -4. -5. -8. -7. -9. -9. -11. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -5. -9. -16. -28. -39. -50. -56. -61. -64. -67. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132009 JIMENA 09/03/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.6 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.7 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.6 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132009 JIMENA 09/03/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY