* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132009 09/03/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 43 42 40 35 27 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 44 43 35 32 29 28 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 45 44 36 33 29 29 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 20 23 18 21 28 26 32 27 26 15 11 7 17 SHEAR DIR 289 285 301 293 299 307 303 288 279 278 296 245 274 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.1 27.7 25.9 23.8 22.0 21.4 20.8 20.5 20.1 19.8 19.9 POT. INT. (KT) 154 152 152 138 119 97 78 71 65 63 60 60 61 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.4 -51.5 -51.6 -51.8 -51.9 -52.2 -52.8 -53.6 -54.1 -54.2 -54.4 -55.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 6 6 4 3 5 2 4 2 5 1 3 0 700-500 MB RH 62 59 57 53 53 49 48 44 41 36 33 28 33 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 8 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -21 -17 -12 -21 -21 -33 -23 0 -2 17 31 56 200 MB DIV 8 7 0 -18 -27 -36 -2 -19 -23 -13 -15 -12 8 LAND (KM) 5 5 5 -31 -62 -55 32 51 84 62 89 191 61 LAT (DEG N) 27.8 28.0 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.5 26.9 26.9 26.9 27.3 27.9 29.0 30.8 LONG(DEG W) 112.5 112.7 112.8 113.1 113.4 113.8 114.4 114.7 115.1 115.3 115.9 117.5 116.9 STM SPEED (KT) 4 2 2 3 3 3 3 1 2 3 7 7 9 HEAT CONTENT 25 29 10 63 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 678 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 2. -2. -7. -11. -14. -17. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -5. -10. -16. -20. -21. -20. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -8. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -5. -10. -18. -29. -38. -43. -48. -49. -52. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132009 JIMENA 09/03/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.0 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.8 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 24.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 25.4 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132009 JIMENA 09/03/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY