* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * ERIKA AL062009 09/04/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 22 21 21 21 24 27 27 27 31 38 44 47 V (KT) LAND 25 22 21 21 19 23 25 28 28 32 39 45 48 V (KT) LGE mod 25 22 20 19 17 22 25 26 23 21 20 22 DIS SHEAR (KT) 18 20 18 17 24 31 32 35 34 15 16 21 N/A SHEAR DIR 267 283 283 275 254 285 258 261 254 305 312 358 N/A SST (C) 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.2 29.4 29.6 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 150 148 146 147 147 148 149 154 157 161 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 146 145 142 140 137 137 136 137 136 139 140 141 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.3 -52.6 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 -52.4 -52.9 -53.1 -53.9 -53.9 -54.3 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 13 12 12 13 13 12 13 13 13 12 12 11 N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 50 48 46 47 47 45 44 43 45 46 49 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 6 8 7 9 8 8 9 10 11 12 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 4 5 8 24 27 18 37 14 25 10 9 -2 N/A 200 MB DIV 17 -9 2 38 17 -5 24 9 -6 -1 -28 -21 N/A LAND (KM) 162 100 51 68 -15 -66 -27 11 14 43 120 175 N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.1 17.5 18.0 18.4 19.0 19.6 20.3 21.2 22.1 23.3 24.5 N/A LONG(DEG W) 65.2 66.2 67.1 68.0 68.8 70.6 72.5 74.3 75.9 77.3 78.3 78.9 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 7 7 N/A HEAT CONTENT 74 64 66 67 65 87 89 45 31 35 62 55 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 691 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -8. -13. -15. -14. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -4. -3. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -4. -4. -1. 2. 2. 2. 6. 13. 19. 22. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062009 ERIKA 09/04/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 20.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.7 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 67.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062009 ERIKA 09/04/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY