* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * ERIKA AL062009 09/04/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 26 27 27 31 34 38 41 49 52 60 62 V (KT) LAND 25 24 26 24 26 31 33 37 40 48 52 60 61 V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 23 21 26 25 25 23 22 22 25 29 DIS SHEAR (KT) 19 15 12 21 27 23 33 23 17 8 9 15 N/A SHEAR DIR 286 300 292 264 285 286 272 237 249 177 198 186 N/A SST (C) 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.6 28.6 28.8 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.8 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 149 149 150 145 145 148 151 151 151 148 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 138 139 138 139 139 135 134 133 134 131 130 126 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -51.9 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -52.7 -53.0 -53.6 -53.5 -53.9 -54.3 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 13 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 10 10 10 8 N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 51 48 48 48 51 52 54 53 55 52 58 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 12 12 10 11 11 14 14 18 15 19 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -1 24 21 11 13 -26 -13 -33 10 4 32 N/A 200 MB DIV 9 5 58 36 21 38 22 55 12 20 22 34 N/A LAND (KM) 108 66 26 -15 63 139 249 410 542 658 690 655 N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.4 17.7 18.4 19.0 20.5 22.0 23.5 25.0 26.5 28.1 29.7 N/A LONG(DEG W) 65.5 66.1 66.6 67.1 67.5 68.8 70.4 71.7 72.5 73.2 73.2 73.0 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 8 9 10 10 9 8 8 8 8 N/A HEAT CONTENT 68 66 67 48 65 62 62 44 46 42 50 33 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 11. 17. 21. 26. 28. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -3. -5. -5. -4. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 7. 4. 8. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 1. 2. 2. 6. 9. 13. 16. 24. 27. 35. 37. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062009 ERIKA 09/04/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 25.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 62.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062009 ERIKA 09/04/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED