* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962009 09/04/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 28 36 47 58 62 63 60 61 60 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 25 28 36 47 58 62 63 60 61 60 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 27 32 40 48 55 56 53 49 SHEAR (KT) 20 13 11 9 6 4 3 5 4 10 18 15 17 SHEAR DIR 73 72 62 72 88 75 93 74 203 249 248 272 265 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.2 28.0 28.0 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 151 150 150 150 150 150 148 145 143 142 143 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.2 -52.1 -51.6 -52.0 -52.1 -52.0 -52.2 -51.4 -51.6 -51.5 -52.2 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 78 78 75 73 73 71 71 68 65 62 60 61 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 8 7 7 6 8 9 8 9 8 10 11 850 MB ENV VOR 34 35 40 45 46 42 57 59 65 53 51 52 49 200 MB DIV 44 25 18 10 5 9 48 41 53 14 26 51 44 LAND (KM) 1226 1283 1300 1323 1353 1442 1523 1599 1686 1776 1880 1981 2027 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.1 12.3 12.5 12.7 12.9 13.3 13.7 13.9 14.1 14.2 14.3 14.5 LONG(DEG W) 113.4 114.3 115.2 116.1 117.0 118.7 120.3 122.0 123.5 124.9 126.3 127.6 128.4 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 9 8 9 8 7 7 7 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 46 45 42 47 50 35 42 41 39 29 27 15 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 6. 13. 21. 28. 32. 35. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 12. 9. 5. 3. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. 0. -1. 0. -1. 1. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 16. 27. 38. 42. 43. 40. 41. 40. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962009 INVEST 09/04/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.1 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 86.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 26.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 46.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.4 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962009 INVEST 09/04/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY