* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * ERIKA AL062009 09/04/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 27 29 29 28 32 33 38 41 46 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 27 26 29 28 32 28 27 28 35 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 24 24 24 25 28 26 25 26 26 31 SHEAR (KT) 32 23 26 31 34 29 34 27 15 19 16 14 17 SHEAR DIR 295 305 278 294 296 283 276 263 265 274 319 323 326 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.3 29.6 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 147 146 146 145 146 146 148 150 155 160 163 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 136 136 135 135 133 133 131 133 135 140 144 146 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.2 -52.7 -52.8 -53.4 -53.4 -53.8 -53.7 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 14 14 14 14 13 14 13 13 12 12 11 12 12 700-500 MB RH 45 46 46 44 48 47 49 51 51 51 50 48 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 7 8 7 7 7 6 8 7 8 7 8 850 MB ENV VOR 4 24 32 14 13 32 8 9 -2 -9 -17 -15 -32 200 MB DIV -4 47 35 27 6 30 -1 22 0 3 11 -13 -7 LAND (KM) 98 86 49 46 5 -76 0 20 9 -39 -25 -9 45 LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.5 17.7 18.0 18.2 18.8 19.3 19.7 19.9 20.2 20.5 20.8 21.1 LONG(DEG W) 67.6 68.3 68.9 69.6 70.3 71.6 72.8 73.7 74.7 75.7 76.9 78.0 79.1 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 4 5 5 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 64 70 72 72 71 83 61 74 78 89 81 34 99 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 690 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 11. 17. 21. 25. 28. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -5. -12. -14. -16. -16. -15. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 3. 7. 8. 13. 16. 21. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062009 ERIKA 09/04/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.3 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 10.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 69.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062009 ERIKA 09/04/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY