* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132009 09/04/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 22 19 18 18 21 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 22 19 18 18 22 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 22 20 18 17 22 25 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 25 27 20 26 28 27 29 19 17 9 6 10 N/A SHEAR DIR 293 312 311 302 302 278 271 262 277 251 291 256 N/A SST (C) 30.6 30.5 30.3 29.9 29.1 26.3 22.9 21.1 20.9 21.0 19.9 19.8 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 166 166 164 160 153 124 88 70 69 70 58 58 N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.7 -51.6 -51.8 -52.2 -52.7 -53.0 -53.5 -54.1 -54.4 -54.6 -54.8 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 8 5 4 7 4 4 1 1 0 3 N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 55 54 52 51 49 46 41 36 30 31 32 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -2 -12 -10 0 -16 -25 -18 -11 12 31 51 40 N/A 200 MB DIV -11 -13 -30 -13 0 -17 0 -15 -11 0 -3 -8 N/A LAND (KM) 58 60 46 16 -13 -24 28 74 125 305 265 187 N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.7 27.6 27.4 27.3 27.1 26.9 26.7 26.8 27.0 27.7 28.9 29.1 N/A LONG(DEG W) 111.6 111.7 111.7 112.0 112.2 113.1 114.0 114.9 115.9 118.1 118.3 117.5 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 4 8 7 4 4 N/A HEAT CONTENT 49 44 38 18 3 34 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 1 CX,CY: 1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 669 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 1. 7. 12. 14. 13. 13. 10. 8. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 0. -5. -11. -14. -15. -15. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 13. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -10. -13. -14. -15. -15. -16. -16. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -7. -7. -4. -6. -10. -16. -20. -23. -24. -23. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132009 JIMENA 09/04/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.2 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.9 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 1.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 30.4 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132009 JIMENA 09/04/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY