* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952009 09/04/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 28 31 36 36 34 31 30 28 30 30 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 28 31 36 36 34 31 30 28 30 30 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 21 22 23 24 24 22 20 18 17 17 18 SHEAR (KT) 12 7 10 13 15 24 33 37 36 36 27 20 15 SHEAR DIR 107 154 187 202 207 221 221 232 222 239 245 269 293 SST (C) 27.5 27.3 27.0 26.6 26.3 26.0 26.0 26.1 26.3 26.5 26.7 27.0 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 133 130 126 122 119 115 114 115 116 118 120 123 130 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 129 124 119 115 109 106 104 104 105 105 107 112 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.9 -53.3 -53.0 -52.2 -52.8 -52.9 -53.6 -54.0 -55.2 -54.5 -55.3 -55.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 7 7 7 6 7 8 8 7 6 7 700-500 MB RH 71 66 65 67 68 68 64 63 56 54 56 63 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 12 12 13 14 14 12 12 10 10 8 8 5 850 MB ENV VOR 74 62 41 34 26 8 -17 -41 -44 -23 -18 -23 -56 200 MB DIV 79 84 69 33 76 53 12 -13 6 7 34 6 34 LAND (KM) 911 1048 1192 1337 1487 1747 1930 2091 2219 2306 2393 2357 2171 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.6 15.3 16.3 17.2 19.0 20.8 22.0 23.6 25.0 26.5 28.0 29.8 LONG(DEG W) 25.9 27.3 28.6 29.9 31.2 33.6 35.6 37.2 38.5 39.3 40.0 40.5 40.6 STM SPEED (KT) 18 15 15 16 15 14 11 10 9 8 8 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 6 8 7 3 2 0 0 1 3 6 8 10 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 474 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 15. 20. 24. 26. 27. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 4. -2. -7. -12. -14. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 11. 16. 16. 14. 11. 10. 8. 10. 10. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952009 INVEST 09/04/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%)