* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952009 09/05/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 34 35 35 32 30 28 27 27 30 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 34 35 35 32 30 28 27 27 30 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 30 31 32 30 26 23 21 20 20 22 SHEAR (KT) 4 10 11 14 20 30 37 38 36 36 24 16 10 SHEAR DIR 152 200 214 202 217 226 235 239 231 253 254 267 251 SST (C) 27.3 27.1 26.8 26.5 26.2 26.1 26.0 26.2 26.3 26.5 26.7 27.0 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 130 127 124 121 117 116 114 116 116 117 119 123 126 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 126 121 117 113 108 105 105 103 103 103 106 108 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -52.9 -52.4 -52.6 -53.1 -53.2 -53.8 -53.8 -54.6 -54.7 -55.0 -55.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 66 65 67 68 69 62 66 57 50 57 58 61 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 11 12 11 10 10 11 10 12 11 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR 61 41 34 21 15 -19 -18 -59 -46 -20 -12 -44 -33 200 MB DIV 52 49 14 55 69 17 20 1 -9 4 -9 15 48 LAND (KM) 1076 1219 1367 1504 1646 1848 2010 2166 2243 2315 2374 2336 2235 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 15.2 16.0 17.0 17.9 19.8 21.4 22.9 24.6 25.9 27.2 28.5 30.0 LONG(DEG W) 27.5 28.9 30.2 31.4 32.6 34.7 36.4 38.0 38.7 39.3 39.7 39.8 38.8 STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 15 15 14 12 11 10 8 7 7 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 8 7 4 3 2 1 1 2 4 6 8 8 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 22. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 2. -4. -9. -13. -15. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 10. 7. 5. 3. 2. 2. 5. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952009 INVEST 09/05/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 22.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%)