* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952009 09/05/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 28 28 26 24 22 23 22 25 29 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 28 28 26 24 22 23 22 25 29 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 23 21 19 17 16 16 17 18 SHEAR (KT) 12 18 19 21 28 30 33 33 33 29 22 17 12 SHEAR DIR 196 197 215 219 224 233 244 234 261 261 266 281 296 SST (C) 26.8 26.4 26.2 26.0 26.0 25.9 26.0 26.1 26.3 26.4 26.8 27.2 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 124 119 117 115 115 113 113 113 115 116 121 126 130 ADJ. POT. INT. 121 115 112 110 107 104 102 100 99 100 104 108 110 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.2 -52.5 -52.9 -53.0 -53.3 -53.7 -53.7 -54.6 -54.7 -54.8 -55.2 -55.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 8 7 7 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 66 66 65 64 60 65 56 52 54 50 50 49 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 11 12 9 10 9 10 10 12 11 11 12 850 MB ENV VOR 28 12 5 -3 -21 -27 -71 -62 -25 -23 -51 -67 -35 200 MB DIV 13 28 61 50 21 11 15 -6 -3 31 -4 21 12 LAND (KM) 1335 1467 1604 1707 1793 1926 2046 2096 2141 2191 2285 2235 2056 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 17.0 17.9 19.0 20.0 21.8 23.6 25.1 26.2 27.3 28.4 29.8 31.3 LONG(DEG W) 29.9 31.1 32.2 33.2 34.2 35.6 36.8 37.2 37.5 37.8 38.5 39.2 39.9 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 14 14 12 11 9 7 6 6 7 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 1 3 4 6 7 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 15 CX,CY: -12/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 7. 12. 16. 19. 20. 21. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 0. -5. -10. -14. -15. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -2. -2. 0. -2. -2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -1. -3. -2. -3. 0. 4. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952009 INVEST 09/05/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 47.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%)