* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962009 09/05/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 25 28 31 33 34 35 36 38 36 34 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 25 28 31 33 34 35 36 38 36 34 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 21 21 22 22 20 18 16 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 13 11 10 2 5 12 18 24 20 22 25 25 35 SHEAR DIR 32 43 42 24 269 248 264 259 286 253 255 246 258 SST (C) 28.3 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.1 26.6 26.3 26.3 25.8 25.3 25.0 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 149 145 144 143 141 134 129 126 126 121 115 112 106 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.0 -51.6 -51.5 -51.7 -50.7 -51.1 -51.1 -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -51.6 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 9 8 7 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 73 69 70 66 66 63 56 55 51 43 46 44 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 9 10 10 12 11 12 13 14 16 18 18 20 850 MB ENV VOR 38 41 35 38 32 57 34 26 39 60 72 75 68 200 MB DIV 8 8 22 18 12 17 -18 -18 22 30 45 38 30 LAND (KM) 1277 1305 1317 1336 1360 1433 1512 1595 1710 1854 1979 2046 2041 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 15.0 15.4 15.8 16.2 17.0 17.7 18.3 18.8 19.2 19.8 20.6 21.5 LONG(DEG W) 118.4 119.2 120.0 120.8 121.6 123.3 124.9 126.7 128.6 130.6 132.4 133.8 134.9 STM SPEED (KT) 13 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 6 HEAT CONTENT 18 26 13 9 7 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 14 CX,CY: -10/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 26. 27. 28. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 2. 0. -3. -4. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. 13. 17. 17. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 8. 11. 13. 14. 15. 16. 18. 16. 14. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962009 INVEST 09/05/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.1 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 15.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.6 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962009 INVEST 09/05/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY