* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952009 09/05/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 28 28 26 24 25 26 27 30 35 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 28 28 26 24 25 26 27 30 35 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 24 22 20 18 18 18 19 21 25 SHEAR (KT) 17 19 25 31 33 34 27 29 26 28 14 8 5 SHEAR DIR 214 224 224 231 232 241 234 241 263 266 295 334 273 SST (C) 26.1 25.9 25.9 25.9 25.9 25.9 26.0 26.2 26.4 26.7 27.0 27.2 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 117 115 114 114 114 112 113 114 116 119 124 126 124 ADJ. POT. INT. 114 110 108 107 105 101 99 99 100 102 106 107 104 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.5 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -53.8 -53.6 -54.5 -54.4 -54.9 -55.4 -56.1 -56.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 4 700-500 MB RH 66 66 66 63 60 60 54 50 52 50 44 47 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 11 10 10 9 9 10 10 12 12 11 11 850 MB ENV VOR 19 5 -4 -16 -25 -53 -70 -50 -36 -36 -76 -53 -36 200 MB DIV 25 39 38 16 23 8 -14 4 51 -24 -1 6 30 LAND (KM) 1475 1602 1702 1774 1853 1945 2001 2024 2054 2120 2236 2052 1880 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 18.8 19.8 20.9 22.0 23.9 25.5 26.8 28.0 29.2 30.6 32.3 34.2 LONG(DEG W) 31.0 32.2 33.3 34.1 34.9 35.8 36.2 36.2 36.2 36.5 37.2 38.1 38.1 STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 14 13 12 9 8 6 6 7 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 5 8 4 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 16 CX,CY: -10/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 11. 15. 18. 20. 21. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. -1. -6. -10. -13. -13. -11. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952009 INVEST 09/05/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 49.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%)