* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962009 09/05/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 37 43 47 49 53 55 57 57 50 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 37 43 47 49 53 55 57 57 50 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 31 33 36 37 36 34 32 30 29 28 SHEAR (KT) 11 10 6 5 4 9 15 21 15 18 16 22 18 SHEAR DIR 55 39 29 32 332 275 257 267 288 273 271 243 243 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.1 27.8 27.2 26.9 27.0 26.7 26.4 26.2 26.1 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 146 145 142 136 133 134 131 128 125 123 118 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.5 -51.5 -51.5 -51.1 -50.8 -51.0 -51.1 -51.7 -51.4 -51.6 -51.2 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 73 74 67 70 63 63 57 51 48 49 50 53 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 12 13 12 13 14 16 18 19 20 21 20 850 MB ENV VOR 37 27 32 29 30 40 38 35 67 99 107 106 90 200 MB DIV 11 14 20 -4 21 -13 -19 2 31 23 17 5 45 LAND (KM) 1368 1393 1416 1454 1497 1593 1699 1826 1975 2159 2090 1937 1846 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.7 15.1 15.5 15.8 16.5 16.9 17.2 17.5 17.7 18.0 18.4 19.1 LONG(DEG W) 119.3 120.2 121.1 122.1 123.0 124.8 126.6 128.6 130.7 133.0 135.0 136.4 137.2 STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 10 10 9 9 9 10 11 10 8 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 40 15 13 15 30 6 6 7 7 8 6 3 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 12. 18. 22. 24. 26. 27. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 15. 17. 19. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 12. 18. 22. 24. 28. 30. 32. 32. 25. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962009 INVEST 09/05/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.3 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.8 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.6 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.2 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962009 INVEST 09/05/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY