* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952009 09/06/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 23 21 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 23 21 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 23 22 21 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 26 28 31 30 28 35 36 29 31 18 15 16 16 SHEAR DIR 218 229 234 251 246 234 238 253 278 308 319 299 332 SST (C) 26.0 26.0 26.0 25.9 25.9 26.0 26.1 26.3 26.6 27.1 27.6 27.8 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 114 114 114 112 112 112 113 115 119 124 129 131 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 105 106 105 102 101 99 99 100 103 107 109 107 107 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -53.5 -53.7 -54.0 -54.0 -54.7 -55.0 -55.0 -54.4 -55.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 7 5 700-500 MB RH 60 57 61 58 53 49 49 50 47 41 44 48 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 10 10 8 9 9 8 9 7 7 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -23 -27 -34 -43 -49 -20 -22 -36 -54 -38 0 -2 200 MB DIV 16 21 17 -10 -7 0 16 -10 -31 -27 14 5 6 LAND (KM) 1752 1812 1877 1931 1985 2027 2068 2128 2251 2295 2141 2044 2008 LAT (DEG N) 19.3 20.2 21.1 21.9 22.6 24.1 25.3 26.6 27.8 29.0 30.1 30.9 31.0 LONG(DEG W) 33.7 34.4 35.1 35.7 36.2 36.6 36.9 37.3 38.3 39.6 40.6 41.0 41.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 10 9 8 7 7 7 8 8 5 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 5 7 11 14 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 756 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 14. 18. 20. 21. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -2. -8. -12. -15. -14. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -10. -9. -8. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -10. -12. -15. -17. -13. -10. -7. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952009 INVEST 09/06/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%)