* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962009 09/06/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 33 36 41 45 47 48 45 44 42 30 V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 33 36 41 45 47 48 45 44 42 30 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 29 29 28 27 25 23 20 18 16 SHEAR (KT) 7 3 3 7 8 12 14 13 21 21 27 26 32 SHEAR DIR 14 339 353 334 313 259 282 242 254 243 234 216 245 SST (C) 28.4 28.2 27.9 27.6 27.5 27.2 27.2 27.0 26.3 25.5 25.0 24.3 23.5 POT. INT. (KT) 148 145 142 139 138 135 135 133 126 118 112 105 96 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.3 -50.6 -50.8 -51.1 -50.8 -51.5 -51.4 -51.8 -51.4 -51.5 -51.3 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 7 8 7 7 6 5 5 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 69 70 67 67 68 63 60 54 55 53 52 50 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 13 13 13 14 15 17 17 19 19 20 21 16 850 MB ENV VOR 22 23 22 25 20 33 27 47 58 58 57 58 39 200 MB DIV -1 16 19 2 -2 -9 10 31 22 33 49 35 6 LAND (KM) 1607 1640 1677 1708 1741 1792 1857 1923 1994 2044 2074 2014 1938 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.9 15.2 15.5 15.7 16.3 16.7 17.3 18.1 19.3 20.5 22.0 23.5 LONG(DEG W) 123.2 124.0 124.7 125.3 125.9 127.2 128.5 129.9 131.4 132.8 134.1 135.1 135.7 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 6 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 37 21 12 11 11 12 9 8 3 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 12. 17. 21. 23. 24. 24. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 3. 1. -2. -4. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 13. 14. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 11. 16. 20. 22. 23. 20. 19. 17. 5. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962009 INVEST 09/06/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.2 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 82.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.4 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.9 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 22% is 4.2 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962009 INVEST 09/06/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY