* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962009 09/06/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 32 38 42 55 66 76 82 83 87 82 81 V (KT) LAND 25 27 32 38 42 55 66 76 82 83 87 82 81 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 32 39 48 58 67 68 66 62 59 SHEAR (KT) 12 7 7 7 11 6 2 5 10 14 10 15 14 SHEAR DIR 92 79 79 94 108 68 143 219 227 206 204 246 252 SST (C) 28.2 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.2 27.2 27.0 26.7 26.6 26.5 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 142 137 134 133 132 130 128 128 125 120 117 116 114 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 137 134 133 131 129 125 125 120 112 106 104 103 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.2 -52.5 -52.0 -51.8 -52.4 -51.0 -51.9 -50.9 -51.7 -50.6 -51.5 -50.5 TH_E DEV (C) 11 8 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 62 61 58 60 59 61 58 55 57 59 56 54 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 17 20 22 21 23 23 26 27 27 31 29 31 850 MB ENV VOR 76 77 67 91 97 77 60 58 51 49 64 74 85 200 MB DIV 80 54 59 84 90 37 35 33 63 73 82 6 75 LAND (KM) 129 275 410 532 667 941 1225 1514 1794 2011 2123 2140 2072 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.7 12.8 13.1 13.3 13.9 14.6 15.2 16.0 16.8 17.5 18.0 18.8 LONG(DEG W) 18.0 19.4 20.7 22.1 23.5 26.2 28.9 31.6 34.2 36.2 37.2 37.3 36.7 STM SPEED (KT) 17 13 13 14 14 14 13 13 12 8 4 3 5 HEAT CONTENT 17 14 12 7 6 6 8 5 7 6 6 6 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 466 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 11. 16. 21. 24. 26. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 12. 12. 11. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 5. 4. 2. 1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 1. 3. 3. 5. 6. 6. 9. 7. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 7. 13. 17. 30. 41. 51. 57. 58. 62. 57. 56. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962009 INVEST 09/06/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.3 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%)