* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962009 09/06/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 31 36 40 42 45 43 38 31 26 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 31 36 40 42 45 43 38 31 26 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 26 26 25 24 23 21 19 17 DIS SHEAR (KT) 2 5 8 7 8 11 10 14 19 24 22 29 29 SHEAR DIR 318 315 317 315 293 265 273 244 233 229 236 245 246 SST (C) 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.3 26.8 26.1 25.0 24.2 23.3 POT. INT. (KT) 145 143 141 139 138 137 137 135 130 124 112 103 94 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -50.6 -50.8 -51.0 -51.0 -51.1 -51.4 -51.5 -51.8 -51.5 -51.6 -51.5 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 5 4 2 2 700-500 MB RH 69 69 66 67 63 61 64 63 65 68 62 59 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 14 13 14 16 18 18 20 21 19 17 15 850 MB ENV VOR 25 20 20 12 20 39 42 46 48 48 37 23 6 200 MB DIV 8 13 5 5 -9 3 13 42 28 38 46 -11 -7 LAND (KM) 1644 1688 1733 1771 1811 1858 1883 1880 1852 1822 1810 1778 1668 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.0 15.1 15.2 15.3 15.5 15.9 16.6 17.6 18.9 20.4 21.9 23.3 LONG(DEG W) 123.9 124.6 125.3 125.9 126.4 127.2 128.0 128.7 129.3 130.0 130.9 131.4 131.6 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 5 4 4 5 5 7 8 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 26 13 12 12 12 17 26 9 5 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 12. 17. 21. 24. 25. 25. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 3. 1. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 6. 8. 11. 12. 10. 6. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 11. 15. 17. 20. 18. 13. 6. 1. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962009 INVEST 09/06/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.1 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.1 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 66.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.6 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962009 INVEST 09/06/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY