* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962009 09/07/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 35 41 51 61 68 73 76 71 69 63 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 35 41 51 61 68 73 76 71 69 63 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 32 38 44 51 55 56 54 53 51 SHEAR (KT) 12 10 10 11 5 6 5 9 16 13 14 14 20 SHEAR DIR 81 92 87 96 103 311 220 191 199 195 218 231 252 SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.1 26.8 26.6 26.5 26.4 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 135 133 131 131 130 129 129 126 121 117 116 114 114 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 133 131 130 128 127 126 120 114 107 103 101 100 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.2 -51.9 -52.3 -52.3 -51.3 -52.2 -50.8 -51.6 -50.6 -51.4 -50.9 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 8 7 8 7 700-500 MB RH 55 57 56 56 53 57 59 60 60 56 54 49 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 22 22 18 21 21 25 24 26 27 25 25 23 850 MB ENV VOR 70 85 87 83 76 49 42 38 41 46 64 70 60 200 MB DIV 67 93 82 30 18 44 48 110 68 70 -37 3 -18 LAND (KM) 470 605 746 878 1012 1282 1558 1803 1999 2123 2159 2178 2171 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.0 13.1 13.3 13.5 14.1 14.7 15.6 16.6 17.5 18.1 18.7 19.1 LONG(DEG W) 21.4 22.8 24.2 25.5 26.8 29.4 32.0 34.3 36.1 37.2 37.6 37.7 37.7 STM SPEED (KT) 16 14 13 13 13 13 13 11 9 5 3 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 9 5 8 6 7 7 6 7 6 6 6 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 519 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 16. 20. 24. 25. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 8. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 4. 3. 4. 5. 3. 3. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 5. 4. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 16. 26. 36. 43. 48. 51. 46. 44. 38. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962009 INVEST 09/07/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%)