* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962009 09/07/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 36 37 37 42 39 34 30 28 20 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 33 36 37 37 42 39 34 30 28 20 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 32 32 32 30 28 27 25 23 21 19 16 SHEAR (KT) 8 10 15 11 14 12 15 17 22 22 24 24 25 SHEAR DIR 298 301 289 281 277 261 254 251 211 233 216 216 212 SST (C) 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.3 26.9 26.5 26.1 25.8 25.3 24.8 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 140 138 137 137 137 136 132 127 123 120 115 110 102 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -51.1 -51.0 -50.8 -51.3 -51.8 -51.8 -51.9 -51.6 -51.9 -51.9 -52.2 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 5 6 6 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 65 66 60 61 57 54 49 51 48 46 41 35 32 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 13 13 14 16 16 17 20 20 17 16 15 12 850 MB ENV VOR 12 4 10 21 28 30 54 67 78 66 53 39 12 200 MB DIV 9 -15 -23 4 9 3 22 24 15 19 -2 1 7 LAND (KM) 1712 1761 1804 1841 1880 1967 2053 2130 2196 2111 2019 1946 1895 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.7 15.9 16.1 16.3 16.7 17.1 17.6 18.1 18.8 19.8 21.0 22.4 LONG(DEG W) 125.3 126.1 126.9 127.7 128.4 129.9 131.3 132.6 133.7 134.7 135.5 136.2 136.8 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 11 11 11 22 17 11 16 10 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 616 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 17. 19. 19. 19. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 4. 4. 6. 12. 11. 8. 6. 5. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 7. 12. 9. 4. 0. -2. -10. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962009 INVEST 09/07/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.9 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.4 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.9 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962009 INVEST 09/07/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY