* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962009 09/07/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 33 38 47 55 63 67 67 62 61 55 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 33 38 47 55 63 67 67 62 61 55 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 35 41 48 52 51 48 45 42 SHEAR (KT) 13 15 13 11 5 3 4 13 16 20 18 16 19 SHEAR DIR 76 83 99 107 46 325 179 203 211 229 229 210 230 SST (C) 27.4 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.5 26.9 26.5 26.4 26.3 26.3 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 130 133 134 135 134 135 132 124 118 114 113 113 113 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 134 136 136 135 135 130 118 109 102 101 101 100 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.0 -52.4 -52.3 -51.8 -51.9 -51.8 -51.4 -51.2 -51.0 -51.4 -50.9 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 62 61 59 55 55 57 54 58 58 58 54 51 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 22 22 18 19 23 24 23 25 27 28 27 28 25 850 MB ENV VOR 82 84 79 67 62 34 34 37 46 48 55 52 48 200 MB DIV 106 94 47 12 42 24 25 42 57 23 3 0 0 LAND (KM) 554 687 818 955 1099 1410 1739 2008 2065 2101 2148 2181 2151 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.3 12.5 13.0 13.4 14.3 15.2 16.2 17.2 18.1 18.5 19.1 19.7 LONG(DEG W) 21.9 23.3 24.7 26.2 27.6 30.6 33.7 36.2 37.9 38.4 38.2 37.8 37.6 STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 15 15 15 16 14 11 7 3 3 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 6 6 8 6 8 6 8 5 7 6 6 5 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 11. 17. 21. 24. 25. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 7. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 2. 3. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 13. 22. 30. 38. 42. 42. 37. 36. 30. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962009 INVEST 09/07/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%)