* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FIFTEEN EP152009 09/07/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 35 37 42 43 45 42 37 34 25 18 V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 35 37 42 43 45 42 37 34 25 18 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 33 33 33 32 31 30 28 26 24 21 18 SHEAR (KT) 5 7 9 12 10 8 10 11 20 16 19 24 22 SHEAR DIR 351 291 278 274 287 239 246 175 229 224 205 201 218 SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.6 27.1 26.2 25.2 24.4 23.8 23.3 POT. INT. (KT) 141 140 139 139 140 140 138 133 124 114 106 99 94 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.1 -50.7 -51.1 -51.5 -51.1 -51.5 -50.6 -51.4 -51.0 -51.5 -51.5 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 4 5 4 700-500 MB RH 63 58 56 57 54 55 56 54 54 52 47 37 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 14 15 15 17 19 20 20 20 18 17 14 11 850 MB ENV VOR 10 15 23 31 24 37 58 63 67 44 23 -9 -11 200 MB DIV 0 -15 8 16 18 32 33 35 15 18 24 -8 -4 LAND (KM) 1777 1819 1849 1879 1912 1957 1976 1986 1999 1987 1943 1887 1864 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.5 15.7 15.9 16.0 16.3 16.9 17.7 18.7 20.0 21.4 22.6 23.7 LONG(DEG W) 126.0 126.7 127.3 127.9 128.5 129.4 130.2 131.0 131.9 132.6 133.3 134.0 134.9 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 6 5 4 5 6 7 7 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 12 12 20 26 28 19 12 6 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 16. 19. 20. 20. 19. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 2. 1. -1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -9. -10. -9. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 9. 11. 10. 8. 8. 3. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 12. 13. 15. 12. 7. 4. -5. -12. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152009 FIFTEEN 09/07/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.9 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 32.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.6 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.1 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152009 FIFTEEN 09/07/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED