* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * SEVEN AL072009 09/08/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 39 44 48 56 62 64 66 68 63 58 50 V (KT) LAND 30 35 39 44 48 56 62 64 66 68 63 58 50 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 39 41 47 53 57 58 57 56 54 51 SHEAR (KT) 16 11 4 6 2 4 14 11 10 13 18 20 28 SHEAR DIR 79 116 214 316 284 299 275 234 213 252 235 239 257 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.8 27.6 27.3 26.8 26.5 26.4 26.3 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 134 133 133 132 131 134 131 126 120 116 115 114 113 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 133 132 129 128 130 124 117 110 105 102 101 100 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.3 -51.8 -51.0 -51.9 -51.6 -51.7 -51.3 -51.6 -51.0 -51.0 -50.8 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 56 63 59 60 62 61 60 63 59 55 52 42 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 22 21 20 23 23 22 26 25 23 28 26 27 23 850 MB ENV VOR 85 83 73 58 44 15 10 18 24 44 54 63 71 200 MB DIV 65 70 47 39 18 0 8 56 67 2 -6 -10 19 LAND (KM) 941 1059 1180 1275 1373 1524 1675 1773 1825 1872 1882 1870 1849 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 11.8 11.9 12.2 12.5 13.6 14.9 16.1 17.3 18.3 19.0 19.7 20.6 LONG(DEG W) 25.6 26.8 28.0 29.0 30.0 31.6 33.1 34.0 34.4 34.7 34.9 34.9 34.8 STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 11 10 10 10 8 7 6 5 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 8 9 9 7 7 8 7 6 4 3 2 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 476 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 15. 18. 21. 22. 22. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 2. 1. 0. 3. 2. 2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 14. 18. 26. 32. 34. 36. 38. 33. 28. 20. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072009 SEVEN 09/08/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.1 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 45% is 3.7 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 32% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 4.8%)