* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * LINDA EP152009 09/08/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 54 58 61 63 64 66 60 55 42 36 22 DIS V (KT) LAND 50 54 58 61 63 64 66 60 55 42 36 22 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 56 60 62 62 60 56 52 46 39 33 27 22 SHEAR (KT) 13 15 11 10 7 9 13 27 21 21 26 27 32 SHEAR DIR 303 295 293 258 252 244 197 221 224 217 203 209 210 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.1 26.2 25.3 24.6 23.9 23.4 23.1 POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 141 142 141 139 133 124 115 108 100 94 90 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -51.2 -51.7 -51.8 -51.3 -51.9 -51.2 -51.5 -51.2 -51.2 -51.2 -51.5 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 53 54 55 56 56 58 59 55 53 49 43 37 32 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 16 17 19 19 20 22 22 23 18 17 13 10 850 MB ENV VOR 21 25 24 33 36 50 67 59 60 30 17 -1 -12 200 MB DIV 10 4 16 16 43 26 36 2 49 15 26 1 -12 LAND (KM) 1896 1920 1944 1969 1996 1997 1968 1973 1992 1976 1890 1822 1773 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.5 15.6 15.8 15.9 16.5 17.6 18.7 19.9 21.1 22.4 23.4 24.2 LONG(DEG W) 127.5 128.0 128.5 129.0 129.5 130.1 130.7 131.6 132.6 133.4 133.8 134.0 134.2 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 5 4 5 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 12 29 32 31 31 16 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 664 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 5. 3. 1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. -2. -5. -7. -10. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE 4. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 11. 4. 4. -2. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 13. 14. 16. 11. 5. -8. -14. -28. -39. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152009 LINDA 09/08/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.2 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 60.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 27.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.4 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 22% is 4.7 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152009 LINDA 09/08/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY