* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FRED AL072009 09/08/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 51 55 59 63 64 65 65 63 55 51 39 33 V (KT) LAND 45 51 55 59 63 64 65 65 63 55 51 39 33 V (KT) LGE mod 45 51 56 60 62 63 62 59 56 53 50 47 43 SHEAR (KT) 13 3 4 7 5 14 9 15 15 19 19 31 33 SHEAR DIR 133 218 239 238 252 225 206 197 202 213 198 249 254 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.5 27.0 26.6 26.5 26.4 26.3 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 133 133 132 132 133 133 129 123 118 115 114 115 114 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 131 129 129 129 128 121 113 107 103 102 104 103 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.8 -51.3 -52.0 -52.2 -51.4 -51.8 -51.1 -51.5 -51.3 -51.3 -51.5 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 62 58 62 63 59 64 64 67 60 54 48 44 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 20 22 21 24 22 22 24 24 20 23 19 19 850 MB ENV VOR 84 71 50 35 24 18 23 20 43 47 77 68 69 200 MB DIV 78 36 43 19 2 42 50 34 24 17 17 -14 -17 LAND (KM) 1049 1152 1257 1346 1437 1583 1674 1735 1773 1782 1755 1771 1823 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.0 12.1 12.6 13.0 14.1 15.4 16.8 18.0 18.8 19.1 20.1 21.7 LONG(DEG W) 26.7 27.8 28.8 29.8 30.7 32.2 33.1 33.6 33.8 33.9 33.7 34.0 34.6 STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 10 10 10 8 7 7 5 3 3 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 9 9 7 7 8 8 7 4 2 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 472 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. -16. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. 1. 0. -2. 0. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 10. 14. 18. 20. 20. 20. 18. 10. 6. -6. -12. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072009 FRED 09/08/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%)