* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * LINDA EP152009 09/08/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 49 49 49 48 51 48 45 41 30 19 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 49 49 49 48 51 48 45 41 30 19 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 49 48 47 46 43 42 39 35 31 27 23 19 SHEAR (KT) 15 11 9 6 10 12 24 24 18 24 31 29 32 SHEAR DIR 286 282 258 233 252 219 194 221 198 193 204 229 234 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.7 27.1 26.2 25.4 24.8 24.2 23.7 23.3 POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 142 142 142 139 133 124 115 109 103 97 93 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.8 -51.8 -51.3 -51.7 -51.8 -51.3 -51.8 -51.6 -52.2 -52.1 -52.5 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 54 54 56 56 54 59 55 54 49 42 38 35 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 16 18 18 17 20 18 19 19 14 11 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 18 19 27 33 39 62 77 73 60 29 7 -23 -39 200 MB DIV 14 28 22 38 50 23 50 16 30 0 2 4 -1 LAND (KM) 1956 1976 1998 2004 2011 2005 1985 1973 1976 1993 1950 1879 1791 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.2 15.3 15.5 15.7 16.5 17.6 18.7 19.7 20.7 21.7 22.7 23.7 LONG(DEG W) 128.1 128.5 128.9 129.2 129.5 130.2 130.9 131.6 132.3 133.1 133.8 134.0 133.9 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 4 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 31 34 34 34 33 19 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 663 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 4. 1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 4. 6. 5. -1. -6. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -2. 1. -2. -5. -9. -20. -31. -38. -44. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152009 LINDA 09/08/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.4 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 47.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 33.2 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152009 LINDA 09/08/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY