* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FRED AL072009 09/08/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 62 66 71 74 76 74 71 66 57 48 39 30 V (KT) LAND 55 62 66 71 74 76 74 71 66 57 48 39 30 V (KT) LGE mod 55 63 69 73 75 75 71 66 60 55 50 46 42 SHEAR (KT) 2 3 6 2 7 12 10 22 14 22 24 28 32 SHEAR DIR 168 264 238 260 232 263 213 217 224 235 252 233 239 SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.7 27.4 26.9 26.7 26.5 26.4 26.3 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 133 132 131 133 134 132 128 121 118 116 115 114 113 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 129 129 129 129 125 119 110 106 104 102 102 100 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.2 -52.1 -52.2 -51.5 -52.0 -51.3 -51.6 -51.2 -51.6 -51.8 -51.8 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 8 8 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 56 59 60 55 61 61 65 61 59 51 47 45 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 22 20 24 23 24 20 22 20 19 19 18 16 850 MB ENV VOR 68 50 35 17 11 8 10 16 50 49 70 57 52 200 MB DIV 37 45 14 -9 30 47 57 7 -14 -11 -26 4 22 LAND (KM) 1183 1277 1373 1460 1548 1678 1750 1780 1791 1797 1793 1804 1847 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.2 12.5 13.0 13.4 14.3 15.8 17.0 17.8 18.6 19.3 20.0 20.9 LONG(DEG W) 28.0 29.0 30.0 30.9 31.8 33.1 33.8 34.0 34.0 34.0 34.1 34.3 34.8 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 9 8 7 5 4 4 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 9 7 7 8 9 8 7 4 3 2 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 2. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. -17. -18. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 4. 3. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 0. 1. 0. -2. -2. -3. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 11. 17. 19. 21. 19. 16. 11. 2. -7. -16. -25. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072009 FRED 09/08/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 77.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.6 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 4.8%)