* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * LINDA EP152009 09/08/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 52 53 55 56 53 48 39 28 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 51 52 53 55 56 53 48 39 28 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 50 50 49 48 46 43 39 35 30 25 22 18 SHEAR (KT) 8 6 4 9 7 11 21 13 19 20 21 23 34 SHEAR DIR 285 248 219 253 226 196 213 223 212 201 230 230 239 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.6 26.8 25.8 24.9 24.3 23.9 23.4 22.8 POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 143 143 141 139 130 120 110 103 99 94 88 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.8 -51.2 -51.8 -51.9 -51.0 -51.6 -51.5 -52.0 -52.1 -52.5 -52.9 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 56 55 57 55 59 60 57 47 45 38 33 28 30 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 18 18 18 19 19 19 19 17 13 10 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 30 33 37 45 48 54 60 38 37 -15 -23 -44 -41 200 MB DIV 31 27 39 53 39 57 23 17 18 -4 -2 5 -6 LAND (KM) 1970 1992 2013 2004 1996 1976 1951 1919 1890 1869 1839 1759 1669 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.2 15.2 15.6 15.9 16.9 18.1 19.3 20.6 21.6 22.3 23.4 24.6 LONG(DEG W) 128.3 128.7 129.0 129.3 129.5 130.2 130.9 131.4 131.9 132.4 132.9 133.1 133.2 STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 4 4 5 6 7 7 6 5 5 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 33 35 35 33 31 12 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. 0. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -4. -6. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 1. -4. -8. -11. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 3. -2. -11. -22. -32. -40. -46. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152009 LINDA 09/08/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.0 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.3 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 63.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 33.4 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152009 LINDA 09/08/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED