* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FRED AL072009 09/08/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 63 66 66 68 66 59 54 47 37 30 24 V (KT) LAND 55 59 63 66 66 68 66 59 54 47 37 30 24 V (KT) LGE mod 55 59 63 65 66 65 62 57 52 47 42 38 34 SHEAR (KT) 2 7 3 9 12 14 18 16 22 27 25 29 33 SHEAR DIR 268 238 255 260 244 228 221 233 229 240 241 248 241 SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.2 26.8 26.6 26.5 26.4 26.3 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 132 132 132 132 132 130 125 119 117 116 115 114 113 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 130 129 127 126 123 115 108 105 104 103 102 100 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -52.0 -52.2 -51.6 -51.4 -51.9 -50.8 -51.5 -50.9 -51.7 -51.5 -51.7 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 60 61 59 62 62 66 66 62 53 47 39 35 30 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 20 24 23 20 22 23 19 21 21 17 18 16 850 MB ENV VOR 57 45 28 17 10 9 10 22 26 43 58 56 37 200 MB DIV 32 23 24 50 31 42 46 -6 16 -14 -17 -10 29 LAND (KM) 1312 1414 1518 1584 1652 1740 1816 1835 1824 1838 1876 1918 1962 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.4 12.7 13.2 13.7 14.9 16.2 17.2 17.9 18.6 19.3 20.0 20.8 LONG(DEG W) 29.3 30.4 31.4 32.1 32.8 33.7 34.4 34.5 34.3 34.4 34.9 35.4 35.9 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 9 8 8 8 6 5 3 4 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 8 8 11 11 11 9 8 5 4 4 4 3 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. -1. -3. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -14. -15. -16. -18. -19. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. -3. -2. -2. -5. -4. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 11. 13. 11. 4. -1. -8. -18. -25. -31. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072009 FRED 09/08/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 83.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.4 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 4.8%)