* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * LINDA EP152009 09/08/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 51 52 52 52 47 38 25 18 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 50 51 52 52 52 47 38 25 18 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 50 50 49 48 45 40 34 28 22 18 DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 7 4 9 5 9 16 23 25 26 26 34 38 36 SHEAR DIR 269 227 263 234 225 220 238 218 225 228 230 234 233 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.1 25.7 24.7 23.8 23.2 22.8 22.5 22.2 POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 141 140 139 134 120 109 99 93 87 84 82 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.4 -51.7 -51.8 -51.6 -51.2 -51.7 -51.4 -51.6 -52.0 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 6 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 56 57 57 60 60 60 52 51 45 36 30 29 29 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 18 18 19 19 20 20 17 13 13 10 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 36 45 51 51 58 71 62 49 11 -11 -29 -43 -70 200 MB DIV 30 43 47 35 27 42 16 19 -8 -3 25 -3 -3 LAND (KM) 1945 1955 1965 1949 1934 1912 1898 1856 1769 1690 1661 1601 1508 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.6 15.8 16.2 16.6 17.8 19.5 20.9 22.3 23.5 24.7 25.1 25.2 LONG(DEG W) 128.3 128.7 129.0 129.2 129.4 130.2 131.3 131.7 131.8 132.2 133.2 132.8 131.6 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 4 6 9 8 7 7 7 4 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 36 37 36 26 13 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. -2. -5. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -5. -9. -14. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 0. -5. -6. -11. -11. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. -3. -12. -25. -32. -43. -51. -59. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152009 LINDA 09/08/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.5 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 70.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 29.6 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.1 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152009 LINDA 09/08/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY