* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FRED AL072009 09/09/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 69 72 73 75 73 72 63 54 50 39 29 25 V (KT) LAND 65 69 72 73 75 73 72 63 54 50 39 29 25 V (KT) LGE mod 65 69 71 72 72 70 65 59 53 48 44 40 37 SHEAR (KT) 5 8 8 11 8 9 14 21 20 14 24 29 31 SHEAR DIR 255 263 262 260 268 232 213 229 229 229 243 255 246 SST (C) 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.7 27.4 27.0 26.8 26.6 26.5 26.3 26.1 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 131 132 132 133 132 127 122 119 117 116 115 113 113 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 129 128 128 126 119 111 107 105 104 104 102 101 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -51.8 -51.6 -52.1 -51.8 -51.9 -51.7 -51.6 -51.4 -51.8 -51.7 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 8 8 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 63 58 63 63 65 65 63 58 54 47 43 41 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 22 22 22 23 20 24 21 19 21 17 15 15 850 MB ENV VOR 41 24 15 5 3 9 12 21 42 48 34 18 -13 200 MB DIV 20 21 47 18 48 46 7 4 32 7 -9 -10 26 LAND (KM) 1378 1458 1541 1602 1667 1750 1778 1766 1735 1697 1680 1689 1736 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.8 13.2 13.8 14.4 15.7 16.8 17.6 18.2 18.9 19.9 21.2 22.6 LONG(DEG W) 30.0 30.9 31.7 32.4 33.0 33.8 34.0 33.8 33.4 33.1 33.1 33.3 33.8 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 8 6 4 4 4 4 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 8 10 11 11 10 9 6 5 5 4 3 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. -17. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 3. 0. -2. 0. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 8. 10. 8. 7. -2. -11. -15. -26. -36. -40. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072009 FRED 09/09/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 85.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.4 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 4.8%)