* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FRED AL072009 09/09/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 92 93 94 93 85 75 67 53 43 32 20 DIS V (KT) LAND 85 92 93 94 93 85 75 67 53 43 32 20 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 85 94 97 95 92 81 71 62 55 49 44 39 34 SHEAR (KT) 2 7 9 8 16 22 21 21 24 25 31 39 46 SHEAR DIR 229 235 242 250 235 217 216 209 232 220 234 237 244 SST (C) 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.1 26.7 26.6 26.5 26.4 26.2 26.0 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 133 134 133 132 129 123 118 116 116 116 114 113 113 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 129 128 126 121 113 107 104 103 104 103 102 101 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -51.8 -51.5 -52.0 -52.0 -51.2 -51.9 -51.1 -52.0 -51.4 -51.5 -51.5 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 57 61 60 61 60 61 58 53 44 38 40 39 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 23 22 19 23 23 21 20 21 17 18 16 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR 24 14 9 6 9 5 26 34 33 50 52 17 2 200 MB DIV 22 49 19 51 50 32 9 28 -21 18 -19 -8 -18 LAND (KM) 1491 1562 1637 1697 1760 1818 1828 1829 1813 1768 1723 1749 1824 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.6 14.1 14.7 15.3 16.5 17.5 18.2 18.8 19.6 20.8 22.3 24.1 LONG(DEG W) 31.2 32.0 32.7 33.3 33.9 34.4 34.4 34.3 34.2 33.9 33.6 33.9 34.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 8 7 6 4 3 4 5 7 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 11 11 11 9 9 8 5 4 4 4 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 1. -2. -8. -14. -19. -24. -27. -29. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -9. -11. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -15. -16. -16. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 7. 6. 3. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -5. -6. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 8. 9. 8. 0. -10. -18. -32. -42. -53. -65. -72. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072009 FRED 09/09/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 30.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 2.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%)