* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * LINDA EP152009 09/09/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 60 61 62 60 51 39 29 18 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 57 60 61 62 60 51 39 29 18 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 56 57 56 55 50 44 37 30 25 20 17 DIS SHEAR (KT) 6 3 8 9 14 13 15 15 21 22 27 22 17 SHEAR DIR 238 221 167 175 195 220 204 214 208 226 242 264 261 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.1 26.3 25.2 24.4 23.8 23.5 23.1 22.7 22.2 POT. INT. (KT) 140 140 140 138 134 125 114 105 98 94 90 86 81 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.9 -51.8 -50.9 -51.3 -51.6 -51.5 -51.8 -52.2 -52.7 -52.7 -53.3 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 4 3 700-500 MB RH 58 62 64 62 59 54 47 39 37 34 32 28 27 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 18 20 19 19 20 17 14 13 10 8 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 44 50 54 57 75 59 39 -1 -16 -34 -41 -49 -47 200 MB DIV 52 52 51 76 65 10 14 2 -4 10 -14 -20 -18 LAND (KM) 1929 1912 1895 1877 1862 1832 1815 1803 1781 1739 1673 1594 1500 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 16.0 16.4 17.1 17.7 19.0 20.3 21.4 22.3 23.0 23.7 24.4 25.3 LONG(DEG W) 128.3 128.5 128.7 129.1 129.5 130.2 130.9 131.4 132.0 132.3 132.2 131.9 131.6 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 6 8 8 7 7 6 5 4 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 35 33 17 10 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 542 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 1. -3. -5. -8. -11. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -5. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 0. -3. -5. -9. -12. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 6. 7. 5. -4. -16. -26. -37. -46. -53. -57. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152009 LINDA 09/09/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.2 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 64.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.4 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 4.1 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152009 LINDA 09/09/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY