* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FRED AL072009 09/09/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 110 110 105 103 93 81 70 56 44 32 22 17 V (KT) LAND 105 110 110 105 103 93 81 70 56 44 32 22 17 V (KT) LGE mod 105 112 111 104 98 85 74 66 59 53 47 42 36 SHEAR (KT) 4 9 10 8 6 13 17 20 25 23 32 41 31 SHEAR DIR 269 261 229 259 189 222 221 214 241 220 233 235 247 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.3 26.9 26.7 26.6 26.5 26.3 26.1 26.0 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 134 134 131 129 126 121 117 116 116 115 113 112 111 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 129 124 121 116 110 105 104 105 104 102 99 97 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.5 -51.9 -52.1 -51.5 -52.2 -51.8 -51.6 -51.8 -51.3 -51.1 -51.4 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 8 7 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 61 58 60 62 66 60 57 51 49 43 41 38 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 22 23 18 21 22 22 20 19 19 15 15 13 850 MB ENV VOR 12 5 4 8 5 -1 20 37 42 67 47 30 -7 200 MB DIV 46 27 41 49 57 -19 1 29 -23 39 0 7 0 LAND (KM) 1579 1653 1730 1766 1804 1832 1861 1858 1805 1775 1792 1810 1841 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 14.1 14.7 15.3 15.9 16.9 17.6 18.1 18.7 19.8 21.4 22.5 23.4 LONG(DEG W) 32.1 32.9 33.6 34.0 34.3 34.5 34.7 34.6 34.1 34.0 34.3 34.5 34.8 STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 8 7 6 5 3 3 5 7 7 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 11 11 9 9 9 6 5 4 4 4 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -11. -20. -30. -38. -45. -48. -51. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -5. -5. -4. -5. -5. -8. -11. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -15. PERSISTENCE 6. 6. 4. 3. 2. 2. 5. 3. 1. 0. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. -1. 0. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -5. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 5. 0. -2. -12. -24. -35. -49. -61. -73. -83. -88. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072009 FRED 09/09/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 35.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 2.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 19.2 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 86.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%)