* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FRED AL072009 09/09/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 100 97 93 89 76 64 55 44 33 22 16 DIS V (KT) LAND 100 100 97 93 89 76 64 55 44 33 22 16 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 100 101 97 91 85 73 64 57 51 46 40 35 30 SHEAR (KT) 9 13 8 13 18 17 20 28 18 30 34 34 40 SHEAR DIR 261 239 231 198 225 219 191 225 209 221 224 240 242 SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.4 27.2 26.9 26.7 26.6 26.5 26.4 26.3 26.2 26.1 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 132 131 128 125 121 117 116 116 115 114 115 114 116 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 124 119 116 111 105 104 103 103 102 103 104 104 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -52.2 -52.1 -51.7 -51.3 -52.2 -51.2 -51.7 -51.5 -51.4 -51.2 -51.6 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 58 56 62 64 62 58 51 46 38 36 39 41 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 21 20 20 22 21 19 20 19 17 14 15 13 850 MB ENV VOR 5 3 8 1 2 11 23 32 42 45 26 0 -24 200 MB DIV 23 32 34 51 49 18 50 -18 5 -6 7 12 -5 LAND (KM) 1656 1707 1761 1795 1832 1861 1836 1809 1774 1771 1803 1890 2030 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 15.1 15.7 16.3 16.9 17.6 18.0 18.5 19.2 20.1 21.2 22.7 24.5 LONG(DEG W) 32.9 33.4 33.9 34.2 34.5 34.7 34.4 34.1 33.9 34.0 34.4 35.3 36.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 7 5 2 3 3 4 5 7 9 11 HEAT CONTENT 10 9 9 8 6 5 4 5 4 3 2 1 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 658 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -5. -11. -20. -29. -36. -42. -45. -47. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. -11. -12. -11. -11. -14. -15. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -5. -7. -6. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -3. -7. -11. -24. -36. -45. -55. -67. -78. -84. -90. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072009 FRED 09/09/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 19.4 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 75.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%)