* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * LINDA EP152009 09/09/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 63 64 64 63 55 47 34 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 63 64 64 63 55 47 34 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 62 62 61 58 51 43 36 30 25 21 19 17 SHEAR (KT) 6 8 16 18 14 11 16 21 18 18 15 14 16 SHEAR DIR 188 173 192 211 230 216 201 202 237 249 253 242 253 SST (C) 27.6 27.4 27.1 26.8 26.3 25.5 24.5 24.0 23.7 23.5 23.2 22.9 22.5 POT. INT. (KT) 139 137 134 130 125 117 106 100 96 94 91 88 84 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -50.8 -51.3 -51.7 -51.8 -51.9 -52.3 -52.6 -53.1 -53.2 -53.7 -54.0 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 4 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 66 60 59 58 55 48 40 36 34 29 25 22 17 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 19 19 20 20 16 15 13 10 8 6 6 3 850 MB ENV VOR 54 57 74 68 58 38 18 -2 -31 -42 -28 -27 -58 200 MB DIV 58 73 55 23 9 21 18 -7 0 -39 -13 -7 -22 LAND (KM) 1888 1878 1871 1858 1847 1838 1859 1824 1787 1757 1741 1685 1586 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 17.2 17.8 18.4 18.9 19.9 21.2 22.1 22.6 23.1 23.7 24.4 25.3 LONG(DEG W) 128.8 129.3 129.7 130.0 130.3 130.9 131.9 132.4 132.5 132.7 133.2 133.2 132.8 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 6 6 7 7 4 3 3 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 12 10 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -6. -10. -13. -15. -18. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -4. -5. -9. -13. -15. -19. -19. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 4. 3. -5. -13. -26. -38. -46. -56. -58. -62. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152009 LINDA 09/09/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.6 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.8 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 88.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152009 LINDA 09/09/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY