* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * LINDA EP152009 09/10/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 68 70 70 68 60 46 34 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 68 70 70 68 60 46 34 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 68 68 67 64 55 46 38 32 26 22 20 18 SHEAR (KT) 12 15 20 16 14 19 22 25 21 26 19 15 12 SHEAR DIR 176 187 200 210 204 200 204 227 238 253 247 248 268 SST (C) 27.6 27.3 26.9 26.5 26.0 25.3 24.5 24.1 23.9 23.6 23.4 23.1 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 139 136 132 127 122 115 106 100 98 95 93 89 88 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.5 -52.0 -51.9 -51.3 -52.3 -52.5 -52.8 -53.1 -53.4 -53.7 -54.1 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 65 59 58 54 50 47 36 34 31 28 30 25 23 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 16 19 19 19 16 13 11 9 8 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 63 72 67 64 54 36 25 6 -19 -27 -12 -36 -81 200 MB DIV 87 65 33 20 49 16 4 -5 -22 -25 -22 -24 -27 LAND (KM) 1904 1896 1892 1881 1872 1881 1923 1887 1837 1808 1807 1767 1692 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.5 18.1 18.7 19.2 20.1 21.2 21.9 22.4 22.9 23.5 24.0 24.4 LONG(DEG W) 129.2 129.7 130.2 130.5 130.8 131.5 132.7 133.1 133.0 133.2 133.9 133.9 133.3 STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 7 6 6 7 6 3 2 3 3 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 12 9 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 662 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -9. -14. -17. -20. -23. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -14. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -6. -9. -12. -15. -18. -19. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 5. 3. -5. -19. -31. -43. -53. -62. -67. -68. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152009 LINDA 09/10/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.5 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.0 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 90.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.6 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.1 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152009 LINDA 09/10/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY